Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics: 2011 Fantasy Player to Avoid

It hurts me to write this, but it must be done. Don’t buy into the hype surrounding Trevor Cahill, his 18-8 record or his 2.97 ERA last season. I really like Cahill. He doesn’t walk a lot of batters (2.88 BB/9) and he pitches in a spacious ballpark, but it’s almost impossible for him to approach his numbers from last season.

For starters, his BABIP last year was .238. Typically, we expect the average BABIP to be around .300, but pitchers that allow low line drive and fly ball rates tend to have lower BABIPs anyway. Using an equation posted by Fangraphs, we see th...

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