Matt Cain: How Far Will His Fantasy Baseball Value Regress in 2010?

For a long time everyone looked at the Giants’ Matt Cain as a pitcher with all the potential in the world, though he was blessed with the worst luck in baseball.  How else could you explain win totals of seven in 2007 and eight in 2008 despite ERAs under 4.00? 

All that changed in 2009, when Cain seemingly put it all together to post the following line:

14 Wins
217.2 Innings
2.89 ERA
1.18 WHIP
171 Strikeouts (7.07 K/9)
73 Walks (3.02 BB/9)
.268 BABIP

The numbers were impressive across the board, though it’s clear that he had a tremendous amount of luck contributing to his success.  The BABIP is just the first example, as it was the fourth best among pitchers who threw at least 150 innings (only Jarrod Washburn, Rand...

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