Here’s a Thought: Dissecting Trevor Cahill’s Struggles

If you take a quick look at Trevor Cahill's 2009 stats from, say, Yahoo! Sports, you probably would come away thinking "It's not great, but he did okay for a 21-year-old."

Cahill went 10-13 with a 4.63 ERA...something like a No. 4 starter.

However, a deeper look reveals a season built on luck rather than skill, and some serious problems for the righty.

Cahill had a 5.33 FIP, 0.70 runs higher than his ERA. His xFIP (4.92) and tRA (5.39) also grade out poorly. All three metrics, which, if you've never heard of them before, are essentially luck-adjusted ERAs, are much higher than Cahill's ERA.

So what does this mean.

Cahill got lucky.

A quick check of Cahill's BABIP confirms this, as his .276 mark is likely not sustainable and will probably regress...

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