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Here’s a Thought: Brandon Medders Is Likely To Regress in 2010

Since I have a bunch of time on my hands in this month, being that I'm off from college, I've been compiling a leaderboard of what I call "True ERA." The formula for that is pretty simple:

True ERA = FIP + (xFIP - FIP) + (.92tRA - FIP)

How did I come up with this, you ask?

Well, FIP is widely regarded as a sort of "true ERA" since it takes out all luck. xFIP (Wow, I just started a sentence with a lowercase letter, and it was correct) is FIP with a HR/FB adjustment, so we can say that (xFIP - FIP) is simply a "homer adjustment."

So, if a pitcher's xFIP is six but his FIP is five, we can say that he should have actually allowed an extra run per nine innings because his HR/FB rate should have been higher.

tRA adjusts for batted ball splits. It is on a "Ru...

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