OBP vs. Extra Bases: What the Oakland A’s Understand Better than Others

In "Moneyball," Michael Lewis reported that former Oakland Athletics' assistant general manager Paul dePodesta believed that extra on base percentage (generated via walks) was worth three times as much as a similar amount of extra slugging percentage (a function of extra bases). The old wisdom was that the ratio was more like 1.50:1 or 3:2.

When I first read that, my reaction was "DePodesta can't be right." That would mean that a walk was worth as much as a triple, an obvious fallacy. Or else, three walks are worth three times as much as the triple. But the latter proposition (and similar ones) might actually be correct, depending on surrounding circumstances.

To do this analysis, I need to introduce some new terms...

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